July Recap & Looking Ahead to August
July opened with continued strength in the markets, building on June’s impressive rally. However, by mid-month, the mood shifted as investors digested a mix of economic data and sweeping policy developments. At WWM, Jackie and I stayed grounded in our Gather & Preserve™ process — a data-driven strategy that helps us respond to what the market is doing, not what the headlines say it might do next.
What Moved the Markets in July
While the first two weeks of July continued June’s strong performance, markets ultimately flattened as two major policy stories came into focus:
Stronger-than-Expected Corporate Profits
Q2 earnings season surprised to the upside in July, with roughly 78% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings estimates, according to FactSet. Key drivers included resilient consumer spending, margin improvement in technology and industrials, and continued strength in AI-related sectors. Several large-cap tech names delivered results well above consensus, helping lift major indices to new highs in early July. (Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2025)
Tariff Policy Tightens
Separate from the bill, the administration enacted new and expanded tariffs on key Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, semiconductors, and strategic materials. Critics have labeled the policy a “hidden tax,” warning of its potential to increase consumer prices and disrupt global supply chains. (Washington Post, July 22, 2025)
Economic Indicators: Cooling, Not Contracting
Economic data released in July pointed to continued moderation:
Inflation (CPI): The Consumer Price Index for June rose 2.6% year-over-year, down from 3.2% the month prior — its lowest level since early 2021. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 10, 2025)
Employment: The July jobs report showed 152,000 jobs added, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. (BLS, August 2, 2025)
GDP: Q2 2025 real GDP growth was 0.7%, reflecting a slowing pace of expansion as businesses respond to tighter financial conditions. (Bureau of Economic Analysis, July 31, 2025)
The Fed’s Wait-and-See Mode
While some investors entered the summer expecting the Fed to begin cutting rates, Federal Reserve officials have remained cautious. Policymakers continue to emphasize the need for sustained progress on inflation before easing. All eyes are now on Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later this month (August 22–24) for further clarity.
WWM Positioning: Fully Invested by Design
In late April, our market signals turned positive. Using our Gather & Preserve™ framework, Jackie and I responded by moving to a fully invested posture across both our Growth and Growth & Income portfolios.
We don’t make market calls based on emotion, politics, or speculation. We follow the data — and when the data says to act, we act. That discipline is what allows us to participate in recovery while remaining prepared to pivot if conditions change.
What We’re Watching in August
The Jackson Hole Symposium and any shift in the Fed’s tone on interest rates
Tariff-related inflation — will it begin showing up in producer prices or forward earnings guidance?
The deficit and bond market reaction to the Big Beautiful Bill’s long-term cost projections
Consumer behavior — especially as back-to-school spending ramps up
Whether market breadth expands, or leadership remains narrow and concentrated
August is often seasonally volatile, but we’re confident in our positioning and our process.
Final Thoughts
July was a month of big headlines — but underneath it all, the markets held firm. Jackie and I believe that staying grounded in data and disciplined in execution is the most reliable way to manage through cycles like this.
If you have any questions or want to discuss your investment plan, don’t hesitate to reach out. We’re always here to help.